This leads to a contempt for the past. Too much of what was created in the last fifty years is gone because no one took care to preserve it.

@neauoire I mostly agree with this talk but I also disagree with some key points.

While I think the more alarmist AI folks are really jumping the gun, comparing nematodes (or at best bees and frogs) to humans, on a longer timescale of decades it's likely that we will see huge progress on artificial life/intelligence.

Computers back in the 50's and 60's had growth that would be hard to distinguish from linear. Moore's Law only dates to 1965 and has only been stable since 1975.

@neauoire More importantly, we don't know what exactly the next big thing will be.

For instance, the aerospace trend was winding down just as computers were heating up

As traditional computing winds down, we'll probably see big growth in AI, biotechnology, and/or space technology

Just because growth can't keep up forever, doesn't mean we are close to the limits of growth. The sun puts out a lot more energy than we meaningfully use, and there are still many new things to learn.

@neauoire That said, I do agree that it's likely that the web 30 years from now will bear a lot of resemblance to the web of today, but better designed and more accessible and more distributed. We really are hitting physical limits with traditional hardware performance and it's "good enough".

There are also clear "supersonic jet" like trends, like ultra high bandwidth fiber optic networking, or some of the things 5G is promising, if they can just figure it out.

@neauoire exponential despair since 2014

and surprise, elon musk hasn't improved with age

@neauoire "The idea that something might work fine the way it is has no place in tech culture. "

@neauoire This is very good. I think it also proves its own point that this was written in 2014 and I don't feel like nearly as much has changed between then and now as between 2008 and 2014 (in web tech, obviously).

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